The global market for coffee beans experienced significant volatility and upward price momentum during the third quarter of 2025. This period was characterized by strong consumer demand coupled with persistent supply chain concerns and historically low coffee inventories.
Strong Market Demand Continues to Drive Green Coffee Beans Consumption
Market demand for green coffee beans remains robust, driven by several key consumer trends:
- Premiumization and Specialty: The shift from simple consumption to “coffee enjoyment” is driving the high-end segment. The specialty coffee market, in particular, is witnessing rapid expansion, expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% through 2030. Consumers, especially the 25-39 age group, are willing to pay a premium for high-quality and unique coffee
- The Asia-Pacific Boom: The Asia-Pacific region is a major growth engine, projected to expand at 12.2% annually, with China leading the charge in demand for high-quality products
- Stable Traditional Markets: Traditional major markets in Europe (Germany, Italy, Spain) and North America continue to show steady and reliable demand for various coffee beans grades.
- New Beverage Trends: The rising popularity of ready-to-drink coffee formats, such as Cold Brew and Nitro Coffee (accounting for 75% of sales), and health-focused beverages like Matcha, also influence the overall requirement for green coffee beans.
Current Coffee Supply Situation: Low Stocks and Regional Shifts
Despite forecasts for increased production, the actual supply of readily available products remains constrained, creating a tight market.
- Global Production Forecast: The USDA projects a record global coffee production for the 2025-2026 crop year, increasing by 4.3 million bags to reach 178.7 million bags. This recovery is primarily attributed to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia. However, these new coffee beans will only enter the market gradually.
- Historically Low Inventories: Certified Arabica stocks in New York hit their lowest level in 1.5 years by the end of September 2025. Robusta stocks in London also declined sharply. This low inventory level is a primary price support factor for coffee beans.
- Vietnam’s Role: Vietnam anticipates a potential 7% increase in its 2025/26 crop year production of coffee due to favorable weather conditions. Nevertheless, the preceding 2024-2025 crop faced slight reductions, contributing to the current global tightness Robusta
- Brazilian Volatility: Arabica output in Brazil continues to face weather challenges, while Robusta production is expected to rise.
Coffee Price Analysis and Q4 2025 Forecast
The scarcity concerns surrounding immediately available coffee beans<span style=”font-weight: 400;”> translated directly into significant price appreciation during Q3 2025.
Q3 2025 Coffee Beans Price Performance:
The price benchmarks for both major green coffee beans</b>le=”font-weight: 400;”> varieties showed strong upward momentum:
- Robusta: Futures contracts (January 2026 delivery) witnessed a significant recovery, jumping by 19% compared to the beginning of July, recovering from previous Q2 drops. Domestically, prices for coffee beans</span>style=”font-weight: 400;”> in key producing regions reached nearly 116,000 VND/kg by the end of Q3, nearly doubling the price from the same period in 2024 (approx. 58,800 VND/kg).
- Arabica: December 2025 futures contracts surged by 31% since early July, primarily driven by concerns over Brazilian output and potential US trade policies affecting Arabica
Q4 2025 Price and Market Outlook
The market anticipates that the current price strength will either be sustained or increase further in the final quarter of 2025.
| Factor | Q4 2025 Green Coffee Beans Forecast | Primary Rationale |
| Demand | Positive/Strong Increase | The traditional peak consumption season (year-end holidays) in Europe and North America, combined with the continued strong growth of specialty and Asian markets, will boost demand for it |
| Supply | Pressure | Global inventories of Arabica and Robusta remain low. Q4 is the start of the new harvest season, and it takes time for this new supply to replenish global stockpiles, keeping the market tight. Supplies are still under pressure. |
| Price | Sustained High Levels or Further Increases | The confluence of peak demand and tight supply (due to low inventories and rising logistics costs) will keep its prices elevated. Robusta prices will be particularly sensitive to Vietnam’s harvest yields and ongoing trade developments. |
The expected high demand from roasters preparing for the holiday season, combined with the structural shortage of certified green coffee beans</b>le=”font-weight: 400;”> stock, suggests that the upward pressure on green coffee beans pricing<span style=”font-weight: 400;”> will continue well into Q4 2025. The market needs significant inflows of newly harvested green coffee beans</b>le=”font-weight: 400;”> to stabilize prices.