As we near the close of June 2025, the global coffee market has experienced notable shifts both in international futures and domestic Vietnamese prices. For B2B buyers and F&B distributors, understanding these movements is key to making well-timed sourcing decisions. Let’s explore recent developments and what lies ahead.
Coffee Price Trends: June 1–19, 2025
Throughout the first half of June, the coffee market witnessed substantial volatility.
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Early June: Prices remained relatively high, with occasional upward spikes. On June 10th, futures surged sharply across major exchanges.
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Mid to Late June: Following June 15th, prices began to slide—particularly for Robusta. On June 17th, Robusta futures plummeted by nearly USD 300/ton, while Arabica lost 10.95 US cents/pound.
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Domestic Vietnamese prices mirrored this trend, dropping to their lowest since November 2024—hovering around 110,000–110,600 VND/kg on June 17th, with a slight decline continuing through June 19th.
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Key Drivers Behind Coffee Price Movements
Several factors shaped the coffee market‘s trajectory this month:
1. Increased Supply from Brazil & Indonesia
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Brazil: The country’s Robusta harvest is progressing rapidly, adding pressure to global futures markets. While heavy rains may slightly curb Arabica yields, overall supply strength remains a bearish factor.
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Indonesia: The arrival of new Robusta supplies further weighs on prices.
2. Speculative Sell-Offs
A key reason behind June’s sharp price drop was speculative trading. Faced with reports of robust supply and market risks, speculators triggered a wave of sell-offs, exacerbating downward pressure.
3. Inventory Levels
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ICE-monitored Robusta inventories reached one-month lows, but Arabica stockpiles remain elevated. This imbalance continues to impact trader sentiment.
4. Currency Fluctuations
While VND/USD exchange rates played a minor role, broader macroeconomic trends also influenced local price adjustments.
5. Supply Concerns in Vietnam
Though Vietnam’s harvest suffered drought impacts earlier this year—reducing export volumes—this tightening effect was overshadowed by global supply surges.
Near-Term Coffee Market Outlook
Looking ahead to late June and early July, the coffee market will likely remain under pressure:
1. Robusta: Medium-Term Bearish Outlook
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As Brazil’s harvest ramps up, additional supply may weigh on prices.
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Without major bullish catalysts (such as weather-related disruptions), recovery could be slow.
2. Market Sentiment
If speculative selling persists, further declines or sideways price action are probable. Breaking below key technical support levels could drive prices even lower.
Potential Price Support Factors
Despite headwinds, a few dynamics could help stabilize the coffee market:
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Farmer Holding Behavior: In Vietnam, many farmers continue to hold back inventory, unwilling to sell at current low prices. This could limit supply flow and support price floors.
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Weather Volatility: Any new reports of adverse weather in key growing regions may spark upward corrections.
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Robust Global Demand: Coffee demand remains strong across both mature and emerging markets. Consumption trends in Asia, Europe, and North America provide long-term price support.
Insights for B2B Buyers and F&B Distributors
For businesses in the coffee, black pepper, and F&B sectors, this is an excellent time to monitor the market closely. Current pricing levels may present attractive buying opportunities—especially if supply quality and consistency are assured.
At VHB Group, we recommend:
B2B buyers and F&B distributors should focus on tracking the harvest progress in Brazil and Indonesia, closely monitor speculative trading trends, and proactively coordinate with trusted Vietnamese suppliers to secure competitive pricing and quality-assured coffee procurement.
Final Thoughts
In the near term (late June into July), coffee prices are expected to remain under pressure or trend sideways. For B2B buyers and distributors, now is a strategic time to consider bulk purchasing—while ensuring alignment with quality standards.
With our expertise and deep roots in Vietnam’s agricultural sector, VHB Group offers premium coffee beans, black pepper, cassia, star anise, desiccated coconut, and other F&B ingredients. We are committed to helping partners navigate market shifts with confidence.
📩 Contact VHB Group today for expert insights, competitive pricing, and sourcing strategies tailored to your business.